NBA Picks: Heat vs Celtics Game 4 - 2022 Playoffs
High pressure situation
After dwelling on my half unit total loss (under 207.5 in Game 3), I’m back with another betting pick for Game 4. Tonight's matchup between the Miami Heat and Boston Celtics is the most important of the season for both teams. I’ve had a great feel for this Boston team during the 2022 NBA postseason, they’re resilient and their defense travels well on the road. This Miami Heat team is deceptively dangerous, full of depth and players with chips on their shoulders. Due to injuries and other in-game occurrences, this series is now defined by it’s “moving parts”. Who’s in? Who’s out? We’ve played this game before with both of these teams, but I think the line (or spread) is telling. Let’s bet:
The Celtics committed 24 turnovers that led to 33 points for the Miami Heat, but only lost the game by 6 points. In my last newsletter, I said that I expect the Miami Heat defense to improve on the road for game 3. This prediction came true, but the majority of Boston’s turnovers were dead-giveaways. In my opinion, great teams are defined by their ability to quickly correct psychological errors. In the sports betting world, we call this “bouncing back". The 2022 Celtics have done this repeatedly since January 1st. After each of their 3 losses to the Milwaukee Bucks in the second round, they responded by cutting their turnover rate and dramatically improving their assist-to-turnover rate. Both of these trends led to 4 wins over the reigning champion Bucks. When this Celtics team loses, they follow up with focused and efficient offensive efforts.
Jayson Tatum scored 10 points in Game 3. It was a terrible performance, he also injured his neck. He is now listed as probable for Game 4 and based on what I’m reading, I fully expect him to play. The Heat’s Jimmy Butler (Knee) is also likely to play. Tatum has embodied the “Celtics bounceback”, he rarely has consecutive poor performances in the playoffs. he’s averaged 30.3 points per game in games immediately following the Celtics last 8 losses. PJ Tucker has been a problem for Tatum, but Head Coach Ime Udoka has been creative enough to help Tatum get easier looks in high pressure situations. Tatum showing the ability to completely take over games with his teams backs against the wall (vs the Bucks) definitely helps our cause as well. If he plays tonight in Game 4, I think he’ll record a stellar performance.
*Note Miami Heat Guard Tyler Herro is OUT for Game 4
Marcus Smart is questionable (Ankle), but with Tatum probable it’s safe to say the Celtics are the healthier team ahead of game 4. The Heat are dangerous and well coached. I respect their roster construction. With that said, I still like the Celtics chances to win this series, I have 2 pending bets related to that outcome. I predict the Boston Celtics to cover both full game and at halftime tonight, the offense will shine. I’m betting more on the first half tonight, best of luck.
Picks: Boston Celtics 1H -4 1 unit + Boston Celtics -6.5 half unit
I had great results betting French League (Ligue 1) soccer on Saturday, down day in MLB. Thanks for reading and best of luck!